Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2001/iii/paper-52/4/a/solution

Let be the infectious proportion in a closed population. With homogeneous frequency-dependent transmission rate and recovery rate , the SIS model is
The basic reproduction number is the expected number of secondary infections produced by a typical newly infected individual in an otherwise susceptible population under the specified contact conditions. Here the infectious duration has mean , so .
For the attracting endemic equilibrium has . The homogeneous SIS susceptible fraction is therefore
For the physical equilibrium is disease-free, , . At equality approach to zero is algebraic. Thus is an endemic relation, not a formula demanding more than one susceptible person per person below the invasion threshold.

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