Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2002/iii/paper-32/1/b/i/solution

The current price of one unit of certain future consumption is the sum of the Arrow state prices, namely . A unit-price risk-free asset yielding gross return must satisfy . Hence
Normalize the Arrow state prices by their sum, or multiply them by , to obtain the risk-neutral probabilities:
They are positive and sum to one. Any terminal payoff has current price . In particular any asset with current price one has . These pricing probabilities need not equal the physical probabilities governing the investor's utility.

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