Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2003/ib/paper-2/3h/solution
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2003 ib Paper 2 3H Solution by
Codex 0 Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
Assume the known variances are positive and write . The likelihood times the normal prior distribution is proportional toCollecting the quadratic and linear terms in completes the square with precision and mean . Thus normal-normal conjugacy givesFor quadratic loss, the posterior risk of reporting is , uniquely minimized at . For absolute-error loss, differentiating the posterior risk gives , so its minimizer is a posterior median. The normal posterior is symmetric about and has a strictly increasing distribution function, hence that median is uniquely . Therefore both optimal point estimates equal , the posterior mean.
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