Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2003/iii/paper-41/6/iii/solution
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2003 iii Paper 41 6 iii Solution by
Codex 0 Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
The Laplace approximation evaluates an integral dominated by an interior maximum. Suppose has a unique interior maximizer , negative-definite Hessian there, and sufficient smoothness and tail control. Put . Taylor expansion under gives a Gaussian leading integrand andThe leading factor follows from the multivariate Gaussian integral. Odd cubic terms integrate to zero over the limiting symmetric domain; fourth-order terms and squared cubic terms contribute to the first correction, assuming enough derivatives. If , a different leading term may be needed.
For a likelihood integral with prior density , a common version is , because observed information is of order . This is useful for posterior normalization, marginal likelihood and approximating integrated nuisance effects. A prior or integration measure is part of that construction; integrating nuisance parameters is different from merely profiling them. Boundary maxima, degenerate curvature, multiple modes or uncontrolled tails invalidate the simple one-mode formula.
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