Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2006/ib/paper-2/19c/solution
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2006 ib Paper 2 19C Solution by
Codex 0 Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
Put , and let be the exact standard-normal 95th percentile. Under parameter , with standard normal. This distribution can be justified directly: the joint density of the centered observations is proportional to . An orthogonal change of coordinates with first row has unit absolute Jacobian and preserves the sum of squares. Its density factors into one-dimensional standard-normal densities, making the first coordinate standard normal.
Consider the test . Its rejection probability isincreasing in . Therefore its maximum rejection probability over the null is achieved at zero and equals . This proves it has the required test size.
To prove the uniformly most powerful test property, rather than quote the Neyman-Pearson lemma, fix any . The likelihood ratio of the full sample against isstrictly increasing in . Set . For any competing possibly randomized test with composite-null size at most , we have . Pointwise,because both factors are nonnegative above the threshold and both are nonpositive below it. Integrating givesThis comparison proves the likelihood-ratio optimality result needed here in full. Since the same critical region works for every , it proves the uniformly most powerful test property over the entire alternative.
For , the exact critical region and its quoted-table approximation areUsing the supplied rounded percentile gives . The exact cutoff uses and hence ; the rounded cutoff is the intended numerical approximation, not a literally exact size- threshold. The Gaussian distribution is continuous, so equality at the cutoff has probability zero and no randomization there is needed.
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