Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2006/ii/paper-4/27j/c/solution

Writing , the likelihood function is and its supremum occurs at , including the limiting boundary cases zero and one. The likelihood ratio compares under the null with that supremum. Thus
Use at boundary outcomes. Wilks theorem gives asymptotic under the regular interior null, because one parameter is constrained. Directly, setting and expanding the bracket gives , hence
Under the null, and . The remainder vanishes in probability, proving the same chi-squared distribution limit. If an observed is not small, the quadratic numerical approximation is unreliable and the exact statistic should be used; exact binomial calibration is available. Persistent non-small deviations under a fixed alternative instead make the statistic grow linearly with , rather than having the null chi-squared distribution law.

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