Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2006/iii/paper-46/2/b/ii/solution

Evaluating the fitted linear discriminant analysis score gives
The fifth individual lies exactly on the discriminant boundary. Its two fitted posterior probabilities are equal, so the equal-prior Bayes classifier cannot prefer either species. A specified tie convention could assign it to one species, but such an assignment would not be evidence favoring that species.
In the sketch the solid line is the equal-prior boundary. The dashed line is the prior-dependent Gaussian discriminant boundary for the altered priors in (iii).
Figure 1.
Beetle classifications and the parallel boundary shift when fattus has twice the prior probability
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