Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2007/ii/paper-3/26i/i/solution

For a prior and loss , the Bayes risk of a rule is . A Bayes decision rule minimizes this integrated risk. An Extended Bayes rule is a rule whose excess over the optimal Bayes risk can be made arbitrarily small by a suitable proper prior: for every some has , with finite risks.
Condition on the observation and use iterated expectation. A rule is Bayes precisely when it chooses a minimizer of the posterior expected loss almost surely, up to the usual measurability requirement. Under squared Euclidean loss, with a finite posterior second moment, write . The identity
shows that the Bayes rule is the posterior mean.

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