Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2008/iii/paper-44/2/i/solution

Model the count relative to exposure, for example
Here is a measured exposure such as patient-days, contains hospital predictors, and is a random effect. This Poisson regression separates hospital size from rate variation and supplies partial pooling. Use proper, scale-appropriate priors on coefficients and variation; add regional or temporal effects if the data demand them. A gamma mixing law with an estimated shape is another way to allow more flexible overdispersion. Compare the fitted model's counts and dispersion through posterior predictive checks.

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