Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2008/iii/paper-46/5/c/solution

Under proportional hazards, each coefficient is constant over event time. Examine the Schoenfeld residuals, preferably scaled Schoenfeld residuals, against time or a prespecified transformation such as log time, ranks or a fitted survival-time transformation. Plot a smooth trend and its uncertainty for each covariate. Under the working model there should be no systematic residual-time association; a persistent trend suggests a time-varying coefficient. In a coefficient-scale plot that adds to the scaled residuals, the null trend is horizontal at the fitted coefficient.
A formal proportional hazards assumption test can add a time interaction, for example , and test using a score test with information adjusted for the fitted constant coefficients. The score contributions involve the Schoenfeld functions weighted by . One can test each covariate and use a joint global test for a vector of time-interaction coefficients. Such an association would be possible despite the unweighted residual sum being zero, so that fitted identity does not establish proportional hazards.
A systematic nonhorizontal coefficient trend or significant residual-time association is evidence against a constant hazard ratio. Failure to reject is compatible with the assumption, not proof of it. These diagnostics target the proportionality restriction; they do not by themselves verify covariate functional form or independence of the censoring mechanism.

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