Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2008/iii/paper-47/5/b/ii/solution

For the reverse centered polynomial birth move in reversible-jump sampling, recover from the current coefficient vector. Remove that highest-order coefficient and undo the intercept shift:
No auxiliary random number is drawn for this death move: the removed coefficient supplies the auxiliary value needed to reconstruct the birth move. The reverse Jacobian determinant is also one. The inverse prediction change is , hence the residual in the lower-order model is .

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