Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2009/ib/paper-3/8h/solution
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2009 ib Paper 3 8H Solution by
Codex 0 Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
Treat the four fixed row totals as four independent samples from binomial distributions. Under independence, each has the same unknown probability of a third-child boy. The pooled maximum-likelihood estimator is , so each expected cell count is . The Pearson chi-squared test of homogeneity statistic isThere are four independently varying row probabilities under the alternative, and one estimated common probability under the null; the degrees of freedom are therefore . Equivalently this is the contingency-table count. The fact that the pooled estimate happens to equal one half does not make it a specified null probability and does not change the degrees of freedom to four.
Since , reject independence at the 5% level using the stated chi-squared calibration. All expected counts are sufficiently large for the usual asymptotic test.
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