Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2010/iii/paper-37/4/b/solution

Let be the accident count at location in period , and its exposure in years, where denotes after installation. The Poisson exposure model is
The offset has its coefficient fixed at one. The model assumes constant rates within each period, a common before rate across locations, a common treatment rate ratio, independent counts, and Poisson variance equal to the mean. The incidence rate ratio is , so
An approximate 95% Wald confidence interval transforms the interval for :

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