Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2010/iii/paper-37/4/c/solution
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2010 iii Paper 37 4 c Solution by
Codex 0 Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
The second Poisson exposure model allows each location its own baseline accident rate:The last equality is the corner-point constraint. The common after-to-before incidence rate ratio remains . This model is appropriate because the sites can have different background risks; treating those differences as unexplained Poisson variation made the first model fit poorly, with deviance on 14 residual degrees of freedom.
Adding seven location effects to the first fitted model reduces the deviance by , which is large relative to . The supplied sequential analysis of deviance reports a slightly different location contribution because it enters locations before the period indicator. The full model is much better but its deviance on 7 degrees of freedom still gives an approximate goodness-of-fit -value . That suggests residual lack of fit or overdispersion, although sparse accident counts make the asymptotic deviance goodness-of-fit test approximate.
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