Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2010/iii/paper-37/4/d/solution

After adjusting for location, adding the period effect reduces deviance by on one degree of freedom, giving the supplied likelihood-ratio test . The adjusted incidence rate ratio is
Under this Poisson exposure model, the accident rate after installation is estimated to be about lower, with a statistically significant reduction. The remaining lack of fit merits residual checks and possibly a Quasi-Poisson model or a model allowing location-specific changes. This before-and-after observational study establishes an association under the fitted model; changes in traffic volume, broader trends, or regression to the mean at sites chosen for high prior counts could also contribute, so the estimated reduction is not by itself a causal treatment effect.

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