Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2012/iii/paper-37/5/c/ii/solution

Use the three-state competing risks model shown below. State 0 is alive after surgery, state 1 is dead from lung cancer, and state 2 is dead from other causes. Both death states are absorbing. Study censoring is an observation mechanism, not a biological transition to a fourth state.
For treatment (radiotherapy) or (chemotherapy), define the transition intensity
The fitted Cox proportional-hazards models are
Here and represent the estimated baseline cause-specific hazards for radiotherapy. More formally, the baseline estimates can be expressed as cumulative hazard measures with increments , rather than ordinary smooth functions. All outgoing intensities from states 1 and 2 vanish, and . The treatment hazard ratios are 3.7111 and 1.8045 respectively. This model describes the two observed causes of death, not identifiable latent failure times after death has already occurred.

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