Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2013/iii/paper-32/7/ii/solution

The model is linear in each coded covariate on the log-hazard scale, not necessarily in the raw scientific variable. For a continuous variable , begin with plots and a scientifically plausible range of forms. Compare with a prespecified transformation such as when , or use a restricted cubic spline or fractional polynomial to represent a flexible smooth effect. Do not treat arbitrary integer category codes as a linear quantitative measurement without justification.
Plot martingale residuals from a suitable model against with a smooth trend. A residual pattern can suggest a missing or misspecified effect; these residuals are asymmetric, so the smooth relationship is more informative than judging normality. A model omitting helps reveal its overall shape; plots after including it help assess remaining misspecification. Partial-residual displays or fitted effect curves with uncertainty give complementary information.
Assess nonlinearity with a joint likelihood-ratio or score test for the nonlinear terms in a spline extension. The models containing only and only are generally nonnested, so a difference in their log-likelihoods is not automatically chi-squared. They can be compared by a justified nonnested criterion or validation, or embedded in a model containing both and and tested by dropping one term. Such an encompassing model may be highly collinear, and its coefficients should not be interpreted in isolation. If can be zero or negative, is undefined; choose an appropriate form rather than silently adding an arbitrary offset. Transformation choice is a question about the entire effect curve and its supported range, not only one coefficient's significance. Recheck time constancy after revising the functional form, since misspecification can mimic nonproportionality.

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