Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2014/iii/paper-27/5/c/2/solution

Use the positive exponential Brownian martingale
The strong law for Brownian motion, , makes its exponent tend to and hence . If , then . Part (b) gives, for ,
Thus the maximum is exponentially distributed with rate :
There is no atom at zero, by letting in the tail. This is the infinite-horizon crossing probability for Brownian motion with negative drift.

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