Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2014/iii/paper-33/4/d/solution
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2014 iii Paper 33 4 d Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-06
A 100-year return level is a flow threshold whose probability of being exceeded in a given year is one percent, under a stationary model for annual extremes. Equivalently, its long-run average waiting time between years with an exceedance is one hundred years. It does not imply that exceedances occur regularly one hundred years apart, or that one is guaranteed in any particular hundred-year interval. This definition uses yearly exceedance events even when the underlying observations are daily maxima.
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