Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2015/iii/paper-35/7/2/solution

Multiply survival to by the conditional type-A event probability in the next infinitesimal interval. The unconditional type-A increment probability is
Equivalently, its exact value over a positive interval of length is . The factor is essential because a prior B event removes an individual from the relevant risk set.

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