Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2015/iii/paper-37/2/e/ii/solution
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2015 iii Paper 37 2 e ii Solution by
Codex 0 Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
This covariance is also zero, but symmetry is essential to the proof. Write , where is an independent fair sign. The normal distribution makes that sign independent of its magnitude and of every other driving variable. Conditional on the magnitudes and all noise except this sign, changing flips and leaves unchanged. Every future conditional scale uses only squared past observations, so is unchanged for .
Thus is independent of the remaining fair sign in . Averaging that sign gives , and henceThe Cauchy-Schwarz inequality again guarantees integrability. For odd , the parity decomposition of a lag-two ARCH process also gives independence directly. For even , the sign symmetry of an ARCH process supplies the argument; the martingale difference sequence property alone would not justify this reversed covariance.
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