Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2015/iii/paper-37/2/e/ii/solution

This covariance is also zero, but symmetry is essential to the proof. Write , where is an independent fair sign. The normal distribution makes that sign independent of its magnitude and of every other driving variable. Conditional on the magnitudes and all noise except this sign, changing flips and leaves unchanged. Every future conditional scale uses only squared past observations, so is unchanged for .
Thus is independent of the remaining fair sign in . Averaging that sign gives , and hence
The Cauchy-Schwarz inequality again guarantees integrability. For odd , the parity decomposition of a lag-two ARCH process also gives independence directly. For even , the sign symmetry of an ARCH process supplies the argument; the martingale difference sequence property alone would not justify this reversed covariance.

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