Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2016/ib/paper-2/20h/b/iii/solution

The only closed communicating class is ; the class is open and transient. Its one-step probability of staying inside is at most , so if is the entrance time into , then for an initial state in . Hence entrance occurs almost surely in finite time.
On it is an irreducible aperiodic Markov chain, because both states have positive self-loop probabilities. The finite irreducible aperiodic countable-state Markov chain convergence theorem says that its transition probabilities converge to its unique stationary distribution. The balance equation with gives and .
This limit also holds from : condition on the finite entrance time and entrance state. For , convergence in the closed class applies to a finite sum; the remaining probability is bounded by , which tends to zero as . Thus in the order ,

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