Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2016/ib/paper-3/9h/solution

Let and let be the first visit to strictly after , with if there is none. Put . The Strong Markov property at each finite first return time gives, by induction,
The number of visits, including time zero, is . By Tonelli theorem for nonnegative terms,
If , this geometric series is , and is the probability of never returning. If , every term of the final series is one and both sides are infinite. Thus
with the prescribed infinite-value convention. This covers both transient states and recurrent states.

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