Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2016/iii/paper-206/4/d/solution

The proposed generalized additive model retains the binary response and logit link, but replaces the linear age effect by a smooth function:
A penalized cubic regression spline represents ; frailty remains a parametric coefficient. The plotted age smooth is centered, so its vertical values represent an age contribution to log odds, not probabilities or the entire fitted predictor.
The plot gives no evidence that the nonlinear model improves the mean structure. The fitted curve is essentially a straight descending line, and the label s(age,1) reports effective degrees of freedom close to one, consistent with a linear effect. The widening bands near the ends reflect sparse data and increasing uncertainty, not detected curvature. A linear-age logistic regression is therefore adequate on this evidence and simpler to interpret. A formal comparative claim would need a suitable test or predictive/model-selection criterion, but the figure supplies no reason to retain extra nonlinear flexibility.

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