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ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2016/iii/paper-207/3/h/solution

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Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2016 / iii / Paper 207 / 3 / h / Solution by

Codex  0 Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06

The first event causes extinction precisely when it is recovery of the sole initially infectious individual. An infection would instead give two infectious individuals. The competing exponential clocks calculation therefore gives the first-event extinction probability

\frac{γ}{βN + γ} .

(1)

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