Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2017/iii/paper-207/3/c/i/solution

For a treated patient the recovery transition intensity is per year. A symptoms spell is a holding time with an exponential distribution of rate , so
The treatment multiplier for onset affects how often symptoms begin, not the duration of a spell once the patient is in state 2, under this homogeneous continuous-time Markov chain.

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