Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2017/iii/paper-207/7/c/solution

Let population 1 have baseline and population 2 baseline , with and , and identical unit-rate exponential frailty distributions initially. Their population hazard functions have ratio, for ,
At exactly , both population hazards are zero, so their literal ratio is and is undefined. The intended initial comparison is the right-hand limit,
With , , so the marginal hazard ratio decreases from toward one. The faster-hazard population loses highly frail individuals sooner; its survivors become less frail than the first population's survivors.
Conditional on the same fixed frailty , the individual hazard ratio is the constant . Marginalizing over frailty therefore destroys proportional hazards, even though they hold at the individual level. A population-level Cox proportional-hazards model that ignores frailty would impose an incorrect constant hazard ratio here. Convergence of the ratio to one does not mean identical survival: .

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