Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2018/iii/paper-211/3/d/solution

A unit-face-value zero-coupon bond pays at maturity. The martingale deflator pricing identity is
Use the affine process Markov property with respect to the market filtration; if that filtration contains extra predictive information, the natural Markov property alone would not suffice. Part (b), with every future coefficient equal to , gives the exponential-affine form. More explicitly, the exponential-affine bond pricing recursion is
Indeed, conditioning the first future step in an -step horizon transforms into . Therefore
This uses the true martingale deflator pricing identity; a merely local martingale deflator would not by itself justify replacing prices by conditional terminal expectations.

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