Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2018/iii/paper-338/3/b/iii/solution

Increasing exposure reduces fractional photon shot noise as , but a fixed background mismatch grows in proportion to the signal. The fractional systematic error is , independent of exposure. The systematic-error signal-to-noise ceiling can therefore be poor for a faint source in a bright sky even when random fluctuations are tiny.
Better background subtraction requires matching sky location and time, correcting detector response, dithering or modelling spatial background variations. If were known exactly, one could instead use , which is unbiased and has variance . The ceiling arises from an uncorrected or unknown mismatch in the prescribed subtraction, not an unavoidable property of measuring two patches.
To reach an accuracy ratio at all, a necessary condition in the fixed-mismatch model is
Equality allows only an asymptotic approach; finite exposure adds positive random error. More exposure improves precision, but only better calibration removes the fixed background bias.

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