Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2019/ii/paper-4/14c/b/solution

The fixed-point conditions are
On they give and the disease-free equilibrium . An interior fixed point requires , so it exists only for ; substitution in the first equation gives the endemic equilibrium
The Jacobian matrix is
At its eigenvalues are and . Hence is asymptotically stable for and a saddle point for . At the endemic equilibrium, the equivalent coordinates give eigenvalues and , so it is a stable node whenever it exists. The origin is unstable because every solution with has .
For the phase portrait, the line is invariant and points toward . Also
so trajectories move toward the line . If , then throughout the interior and every nonzero solution approaches . If , the additional infective nullcline is the ray ; increases below this ray and decreases above it, and every trajectory with approaches . At the disease-free and endemic branches exchange stability in a transcritical bifurcation.

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