Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2019/iii/paper-214/2/a/solution

Because , choose a finite set with . Let exceed the -distance from to every endpoint of an edge in , and put
On the one-arm event to distance , take the first oriented boundary edge used by an open self-avoiding path. The connection , the open edge , and the remaining connection from to occur disjointly. The van den Berg-Kesten inequality and translation invariance therefore give
Iteration yields up to an inessential finite-scale adjustment. Since , each of the finitely many remaining is strictly below one, so reducing the exponent if necessary produces a constant valid for every :
This is the finite-size proof of exponential decay of subcritical percolation.

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