Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2019/iii/paper-218/1/b/solution

The positive intercept means the fitted baseline probability for untreated women exceeds . The positive coefficient makes each fitted male log odds exceed the corresponding female log odds, while makes treatment lower the fitted log odds for either sex. Numerically the fitted probabilities are approximately
Their order is , which differs from the observed order . The additive model therefore cannot reproduce the observed ordering.

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