Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2019/iii/paper-218/3/d/solution

The usual residual-deviance chi-squared calibration is unreliable because random effects are estimated and integrated out, changing both the effective degrees of freedom and the null distribution. Use a parametric bootstrap: fit the reported GLMM; compute an observed dispersion statistic such as the Pearson statistic or its ratio to nominal residual degrees of freedom; for each bootstrap replicate draw ten player effects from , simulate all 60 Poisson responses from the fitted conditional means, refit the same GLMM, and recompute the statistic. With replicates, estimate the upper-tail p-value by
Reject at when , equivalently when exceeds the empirical th percentile of the bootstrap null distribution.

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