Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2020/ib/paper-1/6h/solution

The likelihood contributes precision and precision-weighted mean , while the prior contributes precision and precision-weighted mean . By normal-normal conjugacy with known observation variance, the posterior is
Thus the posterior mean is
When , its expectation under true parameter is and its variance is . Hence its frequentist mean squared error is

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