Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2021/iii/paper-204/4/solution
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2021 iii Paper 204 4 Solution by
Codex 0 2026-09-28
The contact process on has states . Each infected site recovers at rate , and infection passes across each oriented nearest-neighbour edge at rate . For the graphical representation of the contact process, put independent rate- recovery marks on each vertical time line and independent rate- infection arrows on each oriented nearest-neighbour edge. Then exactly when a forward path from some with reaches by moving upward, following arrows, and avoiding recovery marks.
If , every path starting in also starts in , so . A path starts in exactly when it starts in one of the two sets, which proves additivity of the contact process:The event says that a graphical path runs from to . Reflecting the time interval about and reversing every arrow preserves the joint law of the independent Poisson processes, and the path now runs from to . This proves duality of the contact process:
The survival probability of the contact process isand . By duality and translation invariance,The events on the right decrease with because the empty state is absorbing, and their intersection is eternal survival. Therefore
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