Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2021/iii/paper-219/2/e/solution

The scale separation makes correlations between distinct observation times negligible, so . Put . With a flat prior,
The next latent value is likewise approximately independent of the past conditional on , with . Marginalizing gives
When every , , , and the predictive variance is .

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