Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2022/iii/paper-218/4/d/solution

Model "lme2" replaces by a random intercept and random PTHK slope:
with a fitted bivariate normal covariance matrix for . This adds a random-slope variance and an intercept-slope covariance.
The likelihood-ratio statistic is
An ordinary chi-squared reference is unreliable because the null random-slope variance is on the boundary and its correlation is unidentified there; the reported correlation of one also signals a nearly singular fit. A valid practical test is a parametric bootstrap: simulate many datasets from fitted "lme1", refit both models by maximum likelihood to each, recompute the likelihood-ratio statistic, and estimate the p-value by the fraction at least . The AIC favors "lme2" slightly, whereas its BIC is larger, so the descriptive criteria do not agree.

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