Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2023/iii/paper-202/5/c/solution

Because , its indefinite integral is bounded, so is bounded above and away from zero. Hence extends continuously and strictly increasingly to . The quadratic-variation clock of is
whose rate is bounded above and away from zero before exit. The Dambis-Dubins-Schwarz theorem therefore identifies , up to an equivalent time change, with Brownian motion in the bounded interval ; in particular, almost surely.
The bounded stopped local martingale is a martingale. If , the optional sampling theorem gives
Therefore
This is the boundary hitting probability from a diffusion scale function.

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