Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2023/iii/paper-218/2/b/solution

At lag , the plot shows the sample autocorrelation function
Under a white noise process, each fixed nonzero-lag sample autocorrelation is approximately , so the dashed pointwise reference lines are approximately .
The first nonzero-lag bar is well above the upper line, which contradicts the zero autocorrelation expected from white noise. Since the plot then largely cuts off, an moving-average process of order one is a plausible model; with the sampling interval as the time unit this is an model.

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