Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2024/ii/paper-3/28l/c/solution

Under the uniform prior, the posterior density after is proportional to . For , differentiating posterior risk gives the unique stationary point
Strict convexity makes it the unique minimum. For , every gives infinite posterior risk at zero and is optimal; symmetrically is optimal for . Hence the unique Bayes rule is .

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