Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2024/iii/paper-207/1/d/solution

Use a three-state continuous-time multi-state model with transient infected state and absorbing recovered and dead states and . If recovery and death have constant transition intensities and , its Q-matrix is
with state order . This is also a competing risks model: recovery and death are the two mutually exclusive first events.

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