Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2025/iii/paper-208/1/a/solution

Hoeffding lemma states that if almost surely, then for every real ,
Convexity of bounds it on by the secant joining its endpoint values. Taking expectations reduces the centered moment-generating function to that of a two-point variable on having the same mean. After rescaling to , its logarithm is
where is its mean. Twice differentiating in shows that the second derivative is a Bernoulli variance and hence at most . The value and first derivative vanish at zero, so Taylor's theorem gives at most . Rescaling proves the claim.

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