Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-year-1-of-the-natural-sciences-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2011/paper-2/17/b/solution

The lazy choice weights are and , in ratio three to one. Normalizing gives . Let denote selection of the first question and let . Its conditional expected value, divided by , is
so . If the overall lazy fraction is , the law of total probability gives . Bayes' theorem then gives
Solving yields . The observed mean is conditioned on the chosen question, so it cannot be equated directly to the unconditional mean over all students.

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