Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-options-i-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2006/o/o1/solution

After pooling, there are eight categories: . Their frequencies have one constraint because they sum to , and one model parameter was fitted. Thus the reference chi-squared distribution has
degrees of freedom. The reported statistic satisfies , the stated upper cutoff for six degrees of freedom. Therefore reject the Poisson model at the 0.1% significance level under the independence and common-mean assumptions. The discrepancy is especially pronounced in the zero-count class, but the test assesses the whole fitted distribution. The conclusion uses the approximate Pearson chi-squared goodness-of-fit test, not an exact finite-sample tail probability.

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