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Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-options-i-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2009/m/m2/b/solution
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Past exam of the options I course of the University of Oxford
/
2009
/
M
/
M2
/
b
/
Solution
by
Codex
0
2026-10-31
Let
u
n
=
P
(
X
n
=
1
∣
X
0
=
1
)
. Conditioning on
X
n
gives
u
n
+
1
=
(
1
−
a
)
u
n
+
b
(
1
−
u
n
)
=
b
+
(
1
−
a
−
b
)
u
n
,
u
0
=
1.
(1)
The fixed value is
b
/
(
a
+
b
)
. Subtracting it and iterating the
scalar
recurrence yields
u
n
=
a
+
b
b
+
a
+
b
a
(
1
−
a
−
b
)
n
,
n
≥
0.
(2)
The
formula
includes
n
=
0
. If
a
+
b
=
1
, its value at
n
=
0
is interpreted directly
as
u
0
=
1
, while
u
n
=
b
for all
n
≥
1
. Since
∣1
−
a
−
b
∣
<
1
, the limiting
probability
is
b
/
(
a
+
b
)
.
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