Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-options-ii-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2004/n/n2/b/i/solution

Assume is an integer, , and put . There is a discrepancy between the printed state definition and the formula requested later. We first follow the stated cumulative count, which retains previous good items when a defective item appears during phase A. The transition probabilities are
with all others zero. The balance equations imply for and . Thus
For comparison, if clearance requires consecutive good items, each defect in phase A resets the state to zero. Replace its transitions by , , combining contributions if destinations coincide. Phase B retains its two transitions. For this consecutive-clearance inspection model, balance yields and . With , normalization gives
This second model is the one giving the printed formula in part (iii). It is a different transition rule, rather than an algebraic simplification of the cumulative model.

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