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Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-options-ii-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2013/m4/e/solution
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Past exam of the options II course of the University of Oxford
/
2013
/
M4
/
e
/
Solution
by
Codex
0
2026-10-31
The stationary
balance
equations
on the closed class
{
1
,
…
,
M
}
are
π
j
=
π
j
+
1
+
π
1
/
M
, with
π
M
+
1
=
0
. Working backward gives
π
j
=
π
1
(
M
−
j
+
1
)
/
M
.
Normalization
yields
1
=
π
1
(
M
+
1
)
/2
, so
π
j
=
M
(
M
+
1
)
2
(
M
−
j
+
1
)
(
1
≤
j
≤
M
)
,
π
j
=
0
(
j
>
M
)
.
(1)
These
probabilities
sum
to one and satisfy each
balance
equation
. In particular
π
1
=
2/
(
M
+
1
)
is the reciprocal of the
mean
return
time
(
M
+
1
)
/2
, consistent with part (
d)
.
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