Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-probability-statistics-and-options-i-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2010/o/1/b/solution

Write . By symmetry of the distribution, . Rearranging gives . Thus the interval printed in the question has endpoint
There is a direction mismatch in the question. Since is before minus after, a reduction corresponds to . The upper interval excludes zero when , which instead tests against a negative mean difference.
For the stated reduction alternative, use the lower 95% interval . It excludes zero exactly when
This is the level- one-sided paired t-test of against . Both the requested upper endpoint and the correctly directed test are thus determined without silently reversing the difference convention.

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