Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-probability-statistics-and-options-ii-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2008/m/5/b/solution

A state is recurrent if, starting there, the probability of returning at some strictly positive time is one. It is transient if that return probability is strictly less than one. Suppose communicate. Choose with and . Chapman–Kolmogorov gives
If is recurrent, summing over and using the supplied return-series criterion makes the return series for diverge, so is recurrent. Interchanging the states proves equivalence; therefore transience is also constant on a communicating class.
For the nearest-neighbor walk, return in an odd number of steps is impossible. A return in steps requires exactly steps each way, so
At , the return series diverges like . If and , then , so it converges by exponential decay. At or one the walk never returns. Hence .

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