Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-probability-statistics-and-options-ii-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2009/m/m5/a/ii/solution
Past exam of the Probability, statistics and options II course of the University of Oxford 2009 M M5 a ii Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
For a finite upper barrier , let be the probability of hitting zero before . It satisfies , , and . For , solving the second-order recurrence with roots and givesAs , the events increase to eventual hitting of zero: any finite path reaching zero has a finite maximal height. Since , this yields , with . In the endpoint case , a positive initial state only moves upward and the hitting probability is zero, agreeing with the positive-state formula. The finite-barrier argument selects the correct solution rather than the also-harmonic constant one.
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